The following outlines are now created conceptually:
Event-Layer 1Transition from Recession / Depression to Growthinfluenced positively by:
-low interest
-econ. stimulus packages
-state interference + high social spendings (acts as stabilizing factor) and high military spending
-low(ered) taxes
changes country-modifier from Recession/Depression to Growth
Transition from Growth to BoomWill not be modelled by a country-modifier but by certain flavor-events that start to kick in.
-Overconfidence, belief in the super-cycle of steady growth, scepticism about the growth-face, crash-gurus ...
Transition from Growth/Boom to RecessionWill kick in by certain shock-events that might occur (and may even be foreseeable some time before they actually happen):
-"Stock market crash" / "A black day"
-"Bank sector crash"
-"A bubble bursts..."
-"Oil price shock"
-"Political crisis" / "Loss of confidence" / "Political Instability"
-"Massive price-deteroriation"
-"Strong inflationary tendencies"
[As basics - whoever has good ideas, tell me. Later on, I might add foreign trade dependence, but in the first steps of development, I totally ignored foreign trade & foreign trade restrictions to keep it simple!]
Transition from Recession to Depression-Country is in recession and the inverted factors for growth-inducing conditions apply:
-> high interest, no econ. stimulus, low/no social & military spending, high taxes
That basically closes the cycle on a very basic level. The growth itself will be adapted on layer 2.
Event-Layer 2Production increases-Adds a new factory to a random province in your country
-decreases a variable named "unemployment"
Production declines-Removes a factory from a random province in your country
-increases a variable named "unemployment"
Company invests in our country-Adds a total of 5 factory to a random province in your country
Company goes bankrupt-removes a total of 5 factory from a random province in your country
The 2 events that add 5 factories are basically a theoretical idea to spare the player of an industrial country getting a new "production increases"-popup every 10 days or so.
The idea is, that production increases and declines in times of growth as well as in times of recession. It is only the saldo that is either positive or negative.
Maybe I will also add several of those events with different names for flavor-purposes, as "production increases/decreases" is rather dull and does not add much of a feeling to a living world, which I would really prefer.
Event-Layer 3Unemployment: I do not know, wether my plans regarding this will work as they are supposed to. I plan to implement a variable, hoping that variables are country-specific and not global. This has to be tested! If it doesn´t work, I have to find other creative solutions...
Unemployment-variable is increased when factories close down and decreased when new facilities are opened. Furthermore, state intervention can decrease this if the political conditions allow this. However, unemployment-variables will be ever-growing due to technological improvements that introduce more efficient ways of production. As machines replace workers because they are more efficient, unemployment does rise ("rationalization") and to keep all people employed either the working people work less and take more time for their leisure, or there will be some people not needed anymore -> unemployment.
As the unemployment-variable reaches a certain amount, an event will trigger and give you a nasty modifier for your country, giving you some political penalties (unemployed can be really dissatisfied and radical in political terms, you know) as well as a dissent-modifier, depending on your social spending-level.
Thus, societies with good social systems will be politically more durable than those with completely free and unregulated markets.
Events & modifiers on the political scale are another topic that are influenced by economic decisions but do not count into this model itself. It is another plan deep in my head that might be revealed later on.
Any suggestions, criticism, ideas? Come on, at least praise me for getting my ass moved a bit